Chutes & Ladders: 20th National Congress Edition

Kevin Rudd, global president of the Asia Society and former Prime Minister of Australia, knows China well. He wrote in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal that:”The 20th Congress, which gets under way Oct. 16th will be different (from other Congresses since the opening of the 1982 reform era). There’s only one appointment that matters now: Xi Jinping, China’s Chairman of Everything. The delegates will reappoint Mr. Xi to a third five-year term as general secretary by a vote of 2,296 to 0.”

I don’t disagree with the main point that Kevin Rudd is making here but there is also a more nuanced view that is important to bring to bear. Wednesday’s post set the table for this more nuanced view. That perspective involves understanding the seven appointments which will be announced on Sunday to the Standing Committee under Xi. The crux of the issue is whether those seven appointments represents a line-up of Xi loyalists — in which case Rudd’s take is spot on — or whether there are appointments enfranchising power-bases at odds with Xi’s direction and indicating that the Party wants some checks on Xi’s untrammeled authority.

Here’s my cheat-sheet to reading next week’s Standing Committee appointments in light of this question:

Chutes & Ladders: 20th CPP National Congress Edition

So what to watch for?

(Scenario 1) Signs that the CCP is totally bought into Xi being Chairman of Everything

— Premier Li Keqiang (aged 67 and therefore normatively eligible for another term) is gone

— No one in their early 50s joins the Standing Committee (showing Xi doesn’t want heir apparent)

— Chen Min’er, a Xi loyalist and champion of Xi’s war on poverty, is appointed

— Ding Xuexiang, a Xi loyalist and Xi policy enforcer, is appointed

(Scenario 2) Signs that the CCP wants some checks on Xi’s untrammeled exercise of power

— He Lifeng, an internationally-friendly protégé of retiring economic czar Liu He, is appointed

— Hu Chunhua, who like Xi had a stellar early career but hasn’t been close with him since, is appointed

— Li Hongzhong, party boss of Tianjin and not “a dyed-in-the-wool” Xi man, is appointed

— Li Xi, party boss of independently minded Guangdong province, is appointed

Finally, keep an eye on Chen Quanguo, party boss of Xinjiang in charge of Uyghur “reeducation,” and Liu Jieyi, head of the Taiwan Affairs Office and the political dimension of the Taiwan reunification project. Whether their stars shine brightly or dim will also give an indication of the degree of CCP support for Xi’s hardline policies on these two fronts.

So that’s the scorecard I recommend you follow. We’ll circle back next week and tally up the score after the Standing Committee line-up has been brought out, in rank order, onto the main stage of the 20th National Party Congress.