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28 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

As Chinese state-owned enterprises make a splash overseas, they sometimes cause a flood of red ink back homehttp://lnkd.in/feVYa5

28 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Global Cleantech Investment? EU Falling from Peak, US in Valley, China Scaling Heightshttp://tiny.ly/Ud8e

27 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

U.S.-China clean energy coop kicked off with high expectations. What have the ups and downs been? http://bit.ly/fAvWVF

27 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

China’s support of North Korea grounded in centuries of conflicthttp://bit.ly/gJq5GN #cnn

26 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

PE in China (as % of GDP) only 0.27 % versus 0.61 % in India, 1.42 % in US and 1.06 % in the UK. So says Carlylehttp://bit.ly/gaI8ZD

26 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Time to rethink your idea of first contacts between Asia, the Americas and Europe. Genes tell a story. time.com/time/world/art…via @TIME

26 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Beijing Consensus? The Japan Model 2.0? Mother of the Four Dragons? Bretton Woods freeloader? Who knows? http://bit.ly/h699lZ

24 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Which US states benefit most from solar power? – No surprise – sunny states not in the NE. Photovoltaics World electroiq.com/index/display/…

24 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

US & China collaborate on low-energy buildings – US-China CERC at LBNL shares focus on bldg efficiency w Philly GPIC ecoseed.org/en/energy-effi…

24 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Where better than Philly for surveying the vicissitudes of centuries of East/West yin/yang? Niall Ferguson reprise: http://bit.ly/gcgWIz

23 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

GoogleHistory view of the East/West Great Game of Centuries – Niall Ferguson at WSJ.comIn China’s Orbit http://on.wsj.com/aXRGgb

23 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

For you battery geeks out there: Energy Storage Crucial Step for Renewable Electricity – electroiq.com/index/display/… via @AddThis

23 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Will China grow old before it grows rich? Today’s 10 workers supporting each senior citizen set to fall to only ‘2.5 workers per’ by 2050.

23 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

GPIC Innovation Hub for Bldg Efficiency now on Twitter, FB & RSS. Go to www.gpichub.org

22 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

SlideShare upload on Cleantech & Clean Energy in Greater China (from Going Global Asia, Temple Univ SBDC, 11-5-10) http://slidesha.re/aCbFCv

8 Nov mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Insider insight on Greater Philadelphia Innovation Cluster as energy efficiency breakthrough — http://blog.mcclureco.com/?p=593

29 Sep mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Knowledge@Wharton on IT merging of computer compatriots “Ch-iwan” http://bit.ly/8YqUFy

2 Sep mterrycooke Terry Cooke

18 months after reset of US-China climate change cooperation, the two need to get in step on the global dancefloor http://bit.ly/b3hIso

1 Sep mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Philly houses US research hub for energy efficient bldgs. Buildings now consume 40% of energy consumed in U.Shttp://lnkd.in/K3-STW

31 Aug mterrycooke Terry Cooke

The Philadelphia region snagged a $122 million Energy Innovation Hub grant yesterday: Here are a couple of reasons http://lnkd.in/ST5WQt

26 Aug mterrycooke Terry Cooke

PlanetShifter Networks’ Interview on China, Pollution and the 11th Five Year Plan at http://www.planetshifter.com/node/1580

21 May mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Radio interview on significance of increased Chinese voting share at World Bank – Listen at http://terrycooke.com/videolinks.aspx

26 Apr mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Investment, Technology & Policy Trends in China’s Cleantech Market – PPS from NY Cleantech Investor Forum 2010http://slidesha.re/bTJzZF

25 Apr mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Hope to see you at the New York Cleantech Investment Forum 2010. Will be talking on China cleantech market. http://bit.ly/cXNvGf

15 Apr mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Philly to host May conference eyeing link betw environmental & economic unsustainability in U.S./China relations –http://bit.ly/aNcria

14 Apr mterrycooke Terry Cooke

The U.S. & China have two left feet in the dance of global sustainability. Let’s put our best foot forward.  http://bit.ly/aB82BV

6 Apr mterrycooke Terry Cooke

PRC’s RMB. Common sense over passion. Multilateralism over bilateralismhttp://bit.ly/aIRPn9

5 Apr mterrycooke Terry Cooke

China: from Sandstorms to a Low-carbon Economy: http://bit.ly/ceuos2 via @addthis

4 Apr mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Backfilling, here’s link to my earlier February newsletter on US-China clean energy — also policy, investment & tech http://bit.ly/a393id

1 Apr mterrycooke Terry Cooke

My March newsletter on U.S.-China clean energy issues — policy, investment, technology. Pls see http://bit.ly/cMp1Yk .

1 Apr mterrycooke Terry Cooke

If you read just one article about China this week, make sure it’s this one — http://bit.ly/acqESd

30 Mar mterrycooke Terry Cooke

A take on U.S. & China fm astute Time Mag piece on 21st c. trends: Not G2, not ‘Chimerica’ but worth reading at @timehttp://bit.ly/bLhGTC

13 Mar mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Follow US & China sustainability challenges — environ & econ — at Facebook Group U.S., China & Sustainability: Forum for Global Citizens

7 Mar mterrycooke Terry Cooke

Here’s what I’m up to in WashDC heat & humidity this summer – Cooke’s WWICS Project: http://bit.ly/cT4d3n

 
Bill Taylor of the "US Policy on China and the Rest of the World" Group has asked:  "Can China Feed Itself?"
 
It depends.
 
More specifically, it depends on the sustainability of a delicate balancing act which Beijing is performing with major  social forces.
 

The underlying tectonics in China are, naturally enough, all interdependent:

o    As a matter of state policy, China is committed to moving 15 million people per year from rural locations to cities
=> This rate of human relocation requires 8% economic growth for the central, provincial and municipal governments to sustain, hence the talisman-like status of 8% growth in Chinese economic plans and reports
=> On the positive side of this massive (and planned) demographic shift of population from the countryside to cities is potential environmental benefit since urban habitation is, per capita, a lighter load on the environment than rural habitation
=> On the negative side is the potential drag on perceived ‘agricultural security’ and ‘agricultural self-sufficiency’ in China unless the fact of fewer farmers year by year is consistently offset by increasing agricultural efficiency per hectare year by year
=> The imperative to achieve increasing annual agricultural efficiency helps explain China’s fervent embrace of agricultural biotechnology. On the flipside, this imperative is seriously undermined by patterns of municipal corruption in the expropriation and development of former farmlands.

In the background of all these interrelated trendlines is the ticking sound of China’s extreme demographics. As a result of China’s ‘one-child’ social engineering, China will soon (withinn decades) be at the extreme end of the global spectrum of age-imbalance with a narrow base of young people trying to support a top-heavy number of old people.

The key question is obviously will the government have managed to have delivered enough of a virtuous cycle of economic/enivonmental benefit for it to be sustained even when the demographic ‘graying’ starts serious downward pull on this house of cards.

Lost in all this is what individual citizens, with changing life-horizons and expectations, think of these state-managed forces affecting their lives. More important is what they will do if enough of them feel the same way. Social stresses on the one-year anniversary of the Sichuan earthquake don’t inspire confidence that the CCP will be well-equipped for this wild card in the deck.

No wonder the Zhongnanhai leadership shows some nervousness about the growing influence of China’s ‘netizens.’

Ernst & Young’s  list of 7 global mega-trends (see previous blog entry below) is incisive. What’s more important is what the 7 show about 1 mega-mega-trend.

  •  E&Y’s shift of power from East to West => particularly, the rise of China (& India) among emerging markets
  • E&Y’s changing financial landscape => structural imbalances in global liquidity and currency exchange rates
  • E&Y’s overhaul of regulatory environment + rising economic importance of resources & commodities => climate change

Compellingly, China is at the epicenter of all three of these global tectonics.  China is simultaneously the world’s fastest growing economy, its greatest holder of foreign exchange surpluses, and its largest carbon-emitter . More compellingly, these three surface-facts of today’s world straddle a common fault-line:   a quarter century of rapid industrialization in China to produce manufactured goods primarily  for export to Western markets. Over this period, exchange rates have been controlled in China to maximize exports and export production has been further maximized by rapid depletion of environmental inputs to promote economic output (ie, without sufficient regard to what Thomas Friedman calls "marking to Mother Nature’).  In other words, a quarter-century of globalization in China has been discontinuous — accelerating the global movement of goods but but accompanied by restrictions in  the global movement of capital (free movement of exchange rates, transparency of SWF sovereign wealth funds, etc) and  ideas (environmental stewardship, corporate governance, free press, etc).

 During the 1982-2008 period of rapidly expanding global trade, the ‘3 C’ stresses (China’s emergence, currency rigidities, climate change impacts)  could be   absorbed within the policy framework of the global system and conceptualized in separate and disconnected terms.  In 2009, during a period of negative growth in global output growth and and of even sharper negative growth in global trade, we need ‘smart policy’ for  framing the opportunities and challenges we face globally.  Business, also, can focus on the opportunities and challenges of its own ‘3 C’s":  China, capital (especially PE and other alternative investment vehicles) and cleantech.  For public policy and global business, the ‘3 C’s" will prove key to helping promote globalization in balanced and sustainable fashion. Without clear focus on the interrelated opportunities for transformational shift, we otherwise risk falling back on global finger-pointing during global recession. 

The key insight is how to frame the issue.  The E&Y list notwithstanding, these are not distinct mega-trends.  From the perspective of globalization, they are three facets of a single phenomenon.  Among E&Y’s 7 global mega-trends, the 3 C’s are the single mega-mega-trend for both policy makers and business.

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Assessing China /The TEA Collaborative blog, please visit us at www.teacollab.org

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